Long-Term Forecasting of Strong Earthquakes in North America, South America, Japan, Southern China and Northern India With Machine Learning

Victor Manuel Velasco Herrera, Eduardo Antonio Rossello, Maria Julia Orgeira, Lucas Arioni, Willie Soon, Graciela Velasco, Laura Rosique-de la Cruz, Emmanuel Zúñiga and Carlos Vera
2 022
Front. Earth Sci., 21 June 2022 Volume 10 - 2022 |
Strong earthquakes (magnitude ≥7) occur worldwide affecting different cities and countries while causing great human, ecological and economic losses. The ability to forecast strong earthquakes on the long-term basis is essential to minimize the risks and vulnerabilities of people living in highly active seismic areas. We have studied seismic activities in North America, South America, Japan, Southern China and Northern India in search for patterns in strong earthquakes on each of these active seismic zones between 1900 and 2021 with the powerful mathematical tool of wavelet transform. We found that the primary seismic activity patterns for M ≥ 7 earthquakes are 55, 3.7, 7.7, and 8.6 years, for seismic zones of the southwestern United States and northern Mexico, southwestern Mexico, South American, and Southern China-Northern India, respectively. In the case of Japan, the most important seismic pattern for earthquakes with magnitude 7 ≤ M < 8 is 4.1 years and for strong earthquakes with M ≥ 8, it is 40 years. Every seismic pattern obtained clusters the earthquakes in historical intervals/episodes with and without strong earthquakes in the individually analyzed seismic zones. We want to clarify that the intervals where no strong earthquakes do not imply the total absence of seismic activity because earthquakes can occur with lesser magnitude within this same interval. From the information and pattern we obtained from the wavelet analyses, we created a probabilistic, long-term earthquake prediction model for each seismic zone using the Bayesian Machine Learning method. We propose that the periods of occurrence of earthquakes in each seismic zone analyzed could be interpreted as the period in which the stress builds up on different planes of a fault, until this energy releases through the rupture along faults and fractures near the plate tectonic boundaries. Then a series of earthquakes can occur along the fault until the stress subsides and a new cycle begins. Our machine learning models predict a new period of strong earthquakes between 2040 ± 5 and 2057 ± 5, 2024 ± 1 and 2026 ± 1, 2026 ± 2 and 2031 ± 2, 2024 ± 2 and 2029 ± 2, and 2022 ± 1 and 2028 ± 2 for the five active seismic zones of United States, Mexico, South America, Japan, and Southern China and Northern India, respectively. In additon, our methodology can be applied in areas where moderate earthquakes occur, as for the case of the Parkfield section of the San Andreas fault (California, United States). Our methodology explains why a moderate earthquake could never occur in 1988 ± 5 as proposed and why the long-awaited Parkfield earthquake event occurred in 2004. Furthermore, our model predicts that possible seismic events may occur between 2019 and 2031, with a high probability of earthquake events at Parkfield around 2025 ± 2 years.
Pub-Orgeira-Long-Term Forecasting of

Factores ambientales condicionantes del metabolismo de una laguna pampeana

Padulles, Maria L.; Torremorell, Ana; Pozzobon, Virginia; Diaz, Belena; Giorgi, Adonis
2 022
Ecología Austral, Vol. 32 Núm. 1 (2022): April 2022. Pages 96-107
Las concentraciones naturales de fósforo y nitrógeno en las lagunas pampeanas permiten el desarrollo de densas praderas de vegetación acuática sumergida, el dominio de fitoplancton o plantas acuáticas flotantes. En las últimas décadas, la eutrofización de las lagunas aumentó con el avance de labores agrícolas, fertilización de campos y el stock ganadero. La turbidez que producen las floraciones fitoplanctónicas inhibe el crecimiento de macrófitas sumergidas y el fitoplancton domina. Este es el caso de la laguna de Lobos, que por más de 20 años se mantuvo como una laguna turbia orgánica con predominio de cianobacterias. Estudiar el metabolismo ecosistémico aporta gran información sobre el modo en que el estado trófico de la laguna contribuye a la producción, respiración y metabolismo neto, con posibles consecuencias para la biota acuática. Aquí presentamos una evaluación del metabolismo en esta laguna a partir de los cambios en la concentración de oxígeno disuelto, estimado para otoño y primavera. La producción bruta de la laguna fue menor y menos variable en otoño (1.57±1.33 g O2.m-2.día-1) que en primavera (20.45±18.00 g O2.m-2.día-1). Si bien la producción fue alta durante el día, la respiración también fue elevada —incluso, la superó— sobre todo en primavera, cuando fue mayor la densidad de organismos planctónicos, principalmente cianobacterias. Por ello, el metabolismo neto tuvo valores bajos o negativos. Esta situación de gran consumo de oxígeno se acentuó en el período de mayor temperatura y de menor profundidad de la laguna, que coincide con la mayor concentración de clorofila-a y de material particulado, y la menor transparencia del agua. Concluimos que la laguna fue predominantemente heterotrófica durante el período que duró el estudio. De mantenerse las altas concentraciones de nutrientes es probable que aumenten los factores que producen estrés y sus consecuencias negativas para la fauna acuática.
Pampean shallow lakes naturally have water nitrogen and phosphorous concentrations that allow the development of dense beds of submerged aquatic vegetation, phytoplankton, or free-floating aquatic plants. In recent years, the eutrophication of these shallow lakes has increased due to the intensification of agriculture, use of fertilization and livestock. Phytoplankton- induced turbidity inhibits the growth of the submerged aquatic vegetation leading to phytoplankton dominance. This is the case of the Lobos shallow lake, which in a period greater than 20 years has remained as an organic turbid shallow lake, with cyanobacteria dominance. The study of the ecosystem metabolism can give relevant information about how the trophic state of a shallow lake drives production, respiration and net metabolism, and the potential consequences for aquatic biota. We evaluated the Lobos shallow lake metabolism using diel changes in dissolved oxygen concentrations during autumn and spring. Gross primary production showed lower values and variability in Autumn (1.57±1.33 g O2.m-2.day-1) than in Spring (20.45±18.00 g O2.m-2.day-1). Although there was high production during the day, respiration was also high, especially in Spring, where there was higher density of planktonic organisms principally cyanobacteria, exceeding net production in both seasons. Thus, we found mainly low or negative values for the net metabolism in Lobos shallow lake. A high oxygen consumption occurred during spring and at the lowest depth, coinciding with the highest chlorophyll-a concentrations, particulate matter, and lowest water transparency. We conclude that Lobos shallow lake was predominantly heterotrophic during study period. High nutrient concentrations will likely increase the factors that produce stress and negative impacts on aquatic fauna.
Pub-Diaz Belena-Factores ambientales condicionantes del

El potencial gasífero de la Formación Zapallal en el área Curumuy y la interferencia de un pozo hidrogeológico (cuenca Sechura, Perú)

Jul Roldán-Guevara, Eduardo A. Rossello
2 022
Boletín de Geología, vol. 44, n.° 3, septiembre-diciembre de 2022
La perforación del pozo hidrogeológico Alejandrina a los 209 m bbp, muy por debajo de la profundidad habitual de los pozos de agua de la zona, alcanzó un nivel areniscoso de la Formación Zapallal con contenido gasífero inesperado que determinó un fuerte venteo, licuefacción de la plataforma de perforación, colapso del equipo de perforación y la contaminación de los niveles tradicionalmente productores del acuífero confinado. Para mitigar esta invasión de gas y surgencia a superficie, se perforaron los pozos: i) de alivio Papayal, para efectuar maniobras de captura y cementación donde se requirieron 5 intentos de perforación direccional hasta interceptar el pozo Alejandrina y ii) exploratorio Curumuy 1X para disminuir la presión de la invasión de gas y conocer sus posibles orígenes anormales a esas profundidades tan someras. El objetivo del trabajo es informar la estratigrafía de este sector potencialmente exploratorio con probada presencia de recursos de gas de la cuenca Sechura y describir la secuencia de acontecimientos de la interferencia en el manejo y producción entre los recursos hidrogeológicos y gasíferos que comparten los mismos reservorios areniscosos de la Formación Zapallal. Para ello, se aportan datos petrofísicos a partir de los registros de perforación de los pozos Alejandrina, Papayal y Curumuy 1X y un modelo simulado de carga y manejo del gas responsable de la contaminación. De esta manera, se presenta un caso de interferencia de objetivos del subsuelo con la intención de preservar y restablecer el comportamiento de los pozos productores del acuífero y a la vez producir gas.
The drilling of the Alejandrina hydrogeological well at 209 m bbp, below the usual depth of water wells in the area, reached a sandy level of the Zapallal Formation with unexpected gas content that caused strong blow-up, venting, liquefaction of the ground, collapse of the drilling equipment and contamination of the traditionally producing levels of the confined aquifer. To mitigate this invasion of gas and it upwelling to the surface, the following wells were drilled: i) Papayal interference well, to carry out capture and cementing maneuvers with 5 horizontal attempts until intercepting the Alejandrina well, and ii) Curumuy 1X exploratory well to reduce the pressure of the gas invasion and discover its possible abnormal origins at such shallow depths. The objective of the work is to present the stratigraphy of this potentially exploratory sector with proved gas resources of the Sechura basin and to describe the sequence of events of the interference in the management and relationships between the hydrogeological and gas resources that share the same sandstone reservoirs of the Zapallal Formation. For this, petrophysical data are provided from the drilling records of the Alejandrina, Papayal and Curumuy 1X wells and a simulated model of loading and handling of the gas responsible for the contamination. In this way, a case of interference of different subsoil objectives is presented with the intention of preserving and reestablishing the behavior of the producing wells of the aquifer and at the same time producing gas.
Pub-Rossello-El potencial gasífero de la

Depósitos De Talco Del Cinturón San José (Colonia, Uruguay): Una Síntesis De Sus Controles Estructurales y Potencial Geoeconómico

Eduardo A. Rossello, Gerardo Veroslavsky
2 022
Geociencias, Vol 41, Tomo 4, 1000-1017, dic 2022
The present study reviews the main geological features, with emphasis on structural controls, affecting the geoeconomic potential of the green schist-hosted talc deposits of the western sector of the San José Belt (Colonia Department, Uruguay) located in the Narancio, Dante Ramos and Zafiro Sector mines. The analysis of the regional geology allows us to define two complementary genetic models for the talc deposits: i) hydrothermal alteration of basic volcanic rocks rich in magnesium, and ii) metasomatic processes in the contact between dolomites and acidic intrusive rocks. Finally, the productive history of the Narancio Mine is synthesized and the geometry, the volume of the lenticular bodies and the quality of the talc deposits of the Zafiro Sector are discussed with the purpose of allowing a better evaluation of its economic potential.
Pub-Rossello-Depósitos de talco del

Depositional and diagenetic controls on sandstone compactional fabrics in an Andean broken foreland basin, the Miocene Vinchina Formation, northwestern Argentina

Sergio A. Marenssi, Marianela Díaz, Carlos O. Limarino
2 022
Journal of South American Earth Sciences, Volume 122, February 2023, 104168
The very thick (up to 6000 m thick) Miocene Vinchina Formation was deposited between 16 and 8 Ma ago and later covered by more than 2500 m of Pliocene-Pleistocene sediments in a broken foreland basin. The very thick sedimentary pile accumulated in a medium to low-gradient basin must have suffered intense mechanical compaction during burial.

Seventy thin sections of unaltered sandstones collected in three sections along the depositional strike of the Vinchina Formation at the Sierra de Los Colorados, La Rioja Province, northwestern Argentina, were analyzed under the microscope for determining compactional paths and controls.

The role of compaction in sandstone diagenesis was firstly assessed using the change in intergranular volume (IGV), which is the sum of all cement and remaining primary porosity. It is clear from the IGV analysis that most of the studied sandstones lose more porosity by compaction (COPL) than by cementation (CEPL). In general compaction increased from the upper to the lower member of the Vinchina Formation (i.e with depth) and there is a clear trend of the compaction index ICOMPACT increase from the northern, shorter Los Pozuelos to the central, thicker La Troya sections. Surprisingly, the thickest southern El Yeso section shows anomalous results possibly due to the extensive development of cements as indicated by the highest CEPL values. Cements are related to the depositional environment (gypsum, calcite) and clast composition (zeolites). Early cements may have prevented further compaction while late cements may have produced open fabrics by dissolution of matrix and framework clasts. Both cases show that diagenetic processes are not homogeneous basin-wide and that the diagenetic pathways are not only controlled by the increase in burial depth but also by characteristics associated with depositional environments and framework clast composition.

We also attempted to relate compaction to burial depth based on the nature (point, long, concave-convex and sutured contacts) and the number (contact and packing indexes) of grain-to-grain contacts in the studied sandstones. The sandstones present predominance of concave-convex grain-to-grain contacts and IC indexes mostly between 3 and 4. Sutured contacts are uncommon, and stylolites were not observed at all. Persistence of open fabrics, floating textures and point grain-to-grain contacts at different depths are the result of dissolution-cementation processes. A clear trend of increasing mechanical compaction with depth is only seen along the northern coarser-grained but thinner Los Pozuelos section. Although compaction seems to have increased with depth and also from north to south, the thickest but overall finer-grained El Yeso (southern) section do not show a clear pattern of change with depth. This behavior seems to be the result of at least four main factors: 1) mean sandstone grain-size, 2) thickness of muddy intervals, 3) development of early diagenetic cements, and 4) depth of burial.

Comparison with comparable examples suggests that similar compactional characteristics are achieved between 3.5 and 6 km of maximum burial depths. However, cumulative thickness of the Vinchina basin-fill indicate that the base of the Vinchina Formation may have been buried at 8.5 km deep but preliminary backstripping models suggest that by 5 Ma this surface may have reached up to 10 km depth. Alternatively, recorded repetitive episodes of deformation, uplift, and erosion (progressive unconformities) in the Vinchina basin may have prevented the sedimentary pile to be deeply buried and therefore allow to reconcile the observed compactional textures with depth of burial.

The results obtained in this work show that the analysis of mechanical compaction in sandstones constitutes a complex task and in occasions there is not a linear relationship between the contact indexes and depth of burial. Sandstone compaction is controlled not only by the depth of burial but also by other factors such as, time, geothermal flow, matrix content, the development of early cements, the ratio between ductile and rigid lithic fragments and, in tectonically active basins the development of progressive unconformities. Therefore, in most cases, it is very speculative to extend diagenetic conditions to basin-wide scales. In particular, the porosity-depth relationship must be based on primary porosity only.
Pub-Marenssi-Depositional and diagenetic controls

Emplacement conditions and exhumation of the Varvarco Tonalite and associated plutons from the Cordillera del Viento, Southern Central Andes

Omar Sebastian Assis , Claudia Beatriz Zaffarana, Darío Orts, Carla Puigdomenech, Víctor Ruiz González, Gloria Gallastegui, Natalia Hauser, Ekaterina S. Kiseeva, José Francisco Molina and Sebastián Pernich
2 022
Geological Magazine, Volume 159, Issue 5, 14 March 2022
During the Late Cretaceous Andean orogeny, the compressive deformation associated with the shallowing of the subducting slab caused the development of the arc-related igneous rocks known as the Naunauco Belt. This study presents petrographic, mineralogical and anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility data for the Varvarco Intrusives (the Varvarco Tonalite, Butalón Tonalite and Radales Aplite), which crop out in the Cordillera del Viento, Neuquén Province, Argentina. The assembly of plutons was formed by mafic magma episodic injection. Amphibole and biotite compositions suggest that the Varvarco Tonalite is related to calc-alkaline, I-type magmas, typical of subduction environments. Different geothermobarometers based on amphibole and plagioclase compositions for the Varvarco Tonalite suggest shallow emplacement conditions (∼2–3 kbar, equivalent to ∼12 km depth). Apatite fission-track analyses give exhumation ages of 67.5 ± 8 Ma for the Varvarco Tonalite and 50.3 ± 5.9 Ma for the Butalón Tonalite. A calculated continuous fast exhumation rate of at least 330 °C Ma−1 is consistent with the shallow emplacement conditions, textural data and geobarometric estimations. In agreement with the thermal profile, the magmatic system was exhumed by ∼12 km within c. 2.1 Ma implying a geothermal gradient of ∼62.5 °C km−1. The last step of exhumation occurred between ∼65.3 and 56.9 Ma. The magmatic fabrics observed in the studied plutons reflect mostly magma chamber processes. The Varvarco Intrusives represent satellite calc-alkaline plutons of the North Patagonian Batholith which were emplaced syn- to post-tectonically with respect to a major deformation stage of the Southern Central Andes.
Pub-Zaffarana-Emplacement conditions and exhumation

New microbiostratigraphic data (calpionellids and calcispheres) from the tithonian of central Chile, type section (Río Tinguiririca) of the baños del Flaco Formation

Diego A. Kietzmann, Franco Iovino, Alfonso Encinas
2 022
Journal of South American Earth Sciences 118 (2022)
This work presents new biostratigraphic data based on calpionellids and calcareous dinoflagellate cysts for the Tithonian in Central Chile. This stratigraphic interval is mostly represented by a thick marine succession of limestone and sandstone known as Baños del Flaco Formation. This formation originated in the shallow-water setting of a carbonate ramp and correlates with other well-studied units in the Neuquén basin of Argentina. Calpionellids and calcareous dinogflagellate cysts are studied on the Chilean side of the Andes for the first time. The recognition of several calpionellids and calcareous dinogflagellate cyst species within the lower Baños del Flaco Formation allowed the identification of a preliminary microbiostratigraphic zonation. Calcareous dinoflagellate cysts include eleven species that defines the Colomisphaera tenuis, and Colomisphaera fortis zones, whereas six chitinoidellid species allowed the identification of the Chitinoidella and Crassicollaria zones, with the Slovenica, Boneti and Remanei subzones. These new microbiostratigraphic data suggest a latest early to earliest late Tithonian age for the studied interval.
Pub-Kietzmann-New microbiostratigraphic data

Reassessing the polyphase Neoproterozoic evolution of the Punta del Este Terrane, Dom Feliciano Belt, Uruguay

Hernan Silva Lara, S. Siegesmund, S. Oriolo, M. Hueck, K. Wemmer, M. A. S. Basei, P. Oyhantçabal
2 022
International Journal of Earth Sciences (2022) 111:2283–2316
Some recent models challenge the position and extension of the assumed oceanic basins formed through the break-up of Rodinia, and the tectonic processes involved in the Gondwana assembly, making the investigation of the Early Neoproterozoic record of great relevance. Within the South-American Atlantic margin, the Punta del Este Terrane (PET) of the Dom Feliciano Belt (DFB) comprises a unique Tonian to Ediacaran record, and has a strategic position to reconstruct spatio-temporal relationships with the southern African orogenic belts. Novel zircon U–Pb and Lu–Hf data from the PET basement orthogneisses display Tonian magmatic ages (805–760 Ma) and Hf isotopic signatures indicative of mainly crustal/metasedimentary sources, (Nd TDM ages: 2.2–1.9 Ga, and εHf(t): − 12 to − 4). The basement paragneisses yielded late Paleoproterozoic to Neoproterozoic U–Pb ages, but dominantly positive εHf(t) values. The presented results confirm the correlation of the PET with the Coastal Terrane of the Kaoko Belt, and discard the idea of the Nico Pérez Terrane as a source. Detrital zircon U–Pb and Lu–Hf data from the Rocha Formation yielded a main peak at ca. 660 Ma, with the Neoproterozoic grains showing a εHf(t) between + 1 and + 14. The deposition age of the Rocha Formation is constrained by the youngest detrital zircon age peak (660 Ma), and the beginning of the deposition of the Sierra de Aguirre Formation (580 Ma). The data indicate common sources with the Marmora Terrane, and it is thus proposed that the Rocha Formation belongs to the Gariep Belt, and it was juxtaposed during the Ediacaran to the DFB.
Pub-Oriolo-Reassessing the polyphase Neoproterozoic

Potential‑Field Filters for Gravity and Magnetic Interpretation: A Review

P. Núñez‑Demarco, A. Bonilla, L. Sánchez‑Bettucci, C. Prezzi
2 022
Surveys in Geophysics Published: 15 December 2022 Volume 44, pages 603–664
Potential field filters are widely used in exploration and interpretation of geologic structures,
archaeological sites, hazards assessment, and in engineering and environmental studies. There are countless filters and attributes and their number keeps growing: directional, horizontal and vertical derivatives; analytic, monogenic and direct analytic signals; modules; local phase; tilt angle; azimuth; local (horizontal, vertical and total) wavenumbers; theta function; high order derivatives; enhancements; normalizations. Furthermore, almost all of these filters can be applied to other filters—often named with overwhelming acronym combinations making it almost impossible to keep up with the particular and general development of this field. In this work, we present a review of more than 200 publications
and compile more than 50 proposed methods in a unified mathematical framework, and an easy-to-follow notation. We asses all the methods, their definitions, connections, variations, redundancies and limitations, including a vast list of references and some historical notes. We improve and amend some points—regarding not only its mathematical applications but also the attributions that correspond to each method. We also establish connections with other fields of research—seismics, mathematics, image analysis—in which the same or similar techniques are used, but have remained isolated and unknown to each other.
Pub-Prezzi-Potential-Field

Controls of the Lithospheric Thermal Field of an Ocean- Continent Subduction Zone: The Southern Central Andes

C. Rodriguez Piceda, M. Scheck-Wenderoth, J. Bott, M. L. Gomez Dacal, M. Cacace, M. Pons, C. B. Prezzi, and M. R. Strecker
2 022
Lithosphere Volume 2022
In an ocean-continent subduction zone, the assessment of the lithospheric thermal state is essential to determine the controls of the deformation within the upper plate and the dip angle of the subducting lithosphere. In this study, we evaluate the degree of influence of both the configuration of the upper plate (i.e., thickness and composition of the rock units) and variations of the subduction angle on the lithospheric thermal field of the southern Central Andes (29°–39°S). Here, the subduction angle increases from subhorizontal (5°) north of 33°S to steep (~30°) in the south. We derived the 3D temperature and heat flow distribution of the lithosphere in the southern Central Andes considering conversion of S wave tomography to temperatures together with steady-state conductive thermal modeling. We found that the orogen is overall warmer than the forearc and the foreland and that the lithosphere of the northern part of the foreland appears colder than its southern counterpart. Sedimentary blanketing and the thickness of the radiogenic crust exert the main control on the shallow thermal field (<50 km depth). Specific conditions are present where the oceanic slab is relatively shallow (<85 km depth) and the radiogenic crust is thin. This configuration results in relatively colder temperatures compared to regions where the radiogenic crust is thick and the slab is steep. At depths >50 km, the temperatures of the overriding plate are mainly controlled by the mantle heat input and the subduction angle. The thermal field of the upper plate likely preserves the flat subduction angle and influences the spatial distribution of shortening.
Pub-Prezzi-Controls of the Lithospheric